이번주 뉴욕증시 전망 - 빅 위크 Big Week

 Even with the prolonged predictions of a US economic downturn for over a year, it has not yet arrived, and even if a recession does occur, investors need not be anxious (BofA). Historically, economic recessions tend not to last long, making it a favorable buying opportunity for stock investors. Since World War II, economic downturns have typically lasted an average of 10 months. Following this, the S&P 500 index rebounded with robust returns within a few months. In the 12 recessions since 1945, the S&P 500 index often started to recover from its lows even while the economy was technically in a recession. After hitting those lows, the index had an average 3-month return of 19.7%, a 6-month average of 28%, and a 12-month average of 43.7%. The S&P 500 index typically reaches its peak about 13 months before a recession begins and hits its bottom not long before the recession ends. Recessions often act as reset periods, with the economy becoming stronger afterward. Historically, rolling recessions with periodic soft patches in some sectors are more common than overall economic downturns.